GBP/USD remains vulnerable, though volatility will drift lower – SocGen

GBP/USD is on the back foot around 1.1200 as the UK political drama deepens. The British pound remains vulnerable as market pricing for rate hikes looks excessive, Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, reports.

UK political soap opera continues

“The UK political soap opera continues, but Jeremy Hunt’s appointment as Chancellor has separated the politics from economic policy.”

“Ignoring the noise in Westminster, we are left with a dramatic U-turn in fiscal policy, which is now tight enough to harden the economic landing and make the 5.2% that is priced-in for UK rates in 12 months’ time look excessive, outright and relative to the 4.9% priced in for the Fed, or the 3.1% priced for the ECB. This leaves sterling vulnerable, even from here, though surely volatility will drift lower.”