ECB will have to decide whether to accept high core inflation or a more restrictive monetary policy – Natixis

“Core inflation in the eurozone continues to rise, reaching 6% year-on-year in August 2022. Its acceleration is inevitable. The European Central Bank (ECB) will therefore have to decide whether to tolerate core inflation remaining high into 2024 or switch to a far more restrictive monetary policy than is currently expected, analysts at Natixis report.

Core inflation lingers

“The ECB can no longer claim that core inflation will rapidly subside, because of its inertia. If core inflation is higher than 6% in early 2023, the inertia of this inflation forces will lead it to at least around 6% at least in early 2024.” 

“Econometric analysis shows that core inflation is perfectly inert (core inflation has an eigenvalue of 0.98). The ECB will therefore have to accept: Either core inflation of around 6% at least in 2024; Or a more restrictive monetary policy than is currently expected.”