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9 Feb 2016
USD/JPY: closes below 115.50 are key
USD/JPY opened against a backdrop of tiring bears after a huge sell-off from above 117.20 to fresh lows and levels not seen since November 2014.
The downside has been building since August and bets were starting to stack up in the options while the risks for an on-hold Fed far outweighed the optimism for the Fed gradually returning to a normal monetary policy of increasing rates in an economy with rising inflation. That apparently is not going to be the case judging by the recent state of global affairs and the market's outlook. However, whether the Yen can continue to strengthen without alarming the Japanese authorities is unlikely.
Technically, the risks to the downside below 115.50 have increased, but closes below here are needed to confirm the possibility of a new lower range targeting 112.00. On a correction, 116.30 comes as the first target ahead of the 116.90 pivot.
The downside has been building since August and bets were starting to stack up in the options while the risks for an on-hold Fed far outweighed the optimism for the Fed gradually returning to a normal monetary policy of increasing rates in an economy with rising inflation. That apparently is not going to be the case judging by the recent state of global affairs and the market's outlook. However, whether the Yen can continue to strengthen without alarming the Japanese authorities is unlikely.
Technically, the risks to the downside below 115.50 have increased, but closes below here are needed to confirm the possibility of a new lower range targeting 112.00. On a correction, 116.30 comes as the first target ahead of the 116.90 pivot.