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25 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: Strong job gains alone are not enough to halt QE3 - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura economists Lewis Alexander and Aichi Amemiya note that slow growth in labor productivity poses uncertainty around the future course of QE3.
They begin by noting that in recent quarters, increases in payroll employment have been surprisingly strong given the reported pace of GDP growth. Further, they add that continued solid job creation that is not accompanied by strong economic growth, however, would pose a dilemma for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) regarding the future course of its current asset purchase program. They write, “We think that the Fed would continue the current asset purchase programs as long as the economic recovery remains weak even if the pace of job creation picks up somewhat.”
They begin by noting that in recent quarters, increases in payroll employment have been surprisingly strong given the reported pace of GDP growth. Further, they add that continued solid job creation that is not accompanied by strong economic growth, however, would pose a dilemma for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) regarding the future course of its current asset purchase program. They write, “We think that the Fed would continue the current asset purchase programs as long as the economic recovery remains weak even if the pace of job creation picks up somewhat.”